This working paper uses a multi-market model to assess ex ante the impact of yield increases for maize, soybean and cassava on cropping patterns, producer and consumer prices, household income and other variables related to maize policy. The findings reveal that raising maize yields alone reduces imports and has generally small but positive effects on output, consumption, income and purchasing power. Raising the yields of all three commodities stimulates production of these crops and reduces imports in particular of maize and cassava but not of soybeans. Rice imports also fall strongly, while household welfare is positively affected but only by a small margin. The authors also assess the impact of removing rice tariffs in each scenario, but admit that this would be politically risky and thus unlikely. The main limitation of this study is that it is not able to capture the wider impacts of wage and labour changes as would be the case with a CGE model. Therefore, information on welfare changes based on household income and expenditure should only be treated as data specific to the model. Overall, this assessment is an important contribution to the literature as it helps to shape the policy debate on agricultural reform alternatives.

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