Kesempatan Pengembangan
Agribisnis Indonesia
Bagian Timur (EI-ADO) - Economic Modelling

The impact of trade liberalization on the soybean economic performance in Indonesia

sudo — Mon, 09 Feb 2015 09:08:52 +0000

FirdausEtAl(2012)ImpactTradeLiberalizationSoybeanEconomicPerformanceIndo.pdf

This study reports the impacts of trade liberalization on the economic performance of soybeans in Indonesia. Data for the econometric model reported in this paper was obtained from various sources. The econometric model, its representativeness and ability to describe the Indonesian soybean economy and its validation are briefly reported. The paper outlines the world soybean economy, identifying primary producers and exporters, importers and briefly outlining the Indonesian soybean economy. Detailed results of the following simulations are reported 1) full trade liberalization, with no trade restrictions by exporters or importers; 2) import country shock (Chinese imports increased by 30%; 3) export country shock (US production decreased by 25%); both importer and exporter shock. The results of these simulations are discussed in terms of the impact on world soybean price, world imports and exports and Indonesian domestic price and imports. The authors conclude with key recommendations for the Indonesian soybean economy: actively encouraging removal of subsidies to ensure efficient and fair trade as intended by trade liberalization; and increasing Indonesian domestic production through policy that facilitates adoption of improved production practices and technology and expansion of soybean production.

Publication Date:

2012

Author:

Firdaus M., et al.

Journal:

Journal of Basic and Applied Scientific Research 2(12) 12396-12403

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An assessment of the impact of higher yields for maize, soybean and cassava in Indonesia: a multi-market model approach. ESA Working Paper No. 07-25.

sudo — Mon, 09 Feb 2015 09:08:52 +0000

SayakaEtAl(2007)AssessmentImpactHigherYieldsMaizeSoybeanCassavaIndo_FAO.pdf

This working paper uses a multi-market model to assess ex ante the impact of yield increases for maize, soybean and cassava on cropping patterns, producer and consumer prices, household income and other variables related to maize policy. The findings reveal that raising maize yields alone reduces imports and has generally small but positive effects on output, consumption, income and purchasing power. Raising the yields of all three commodities stimulates production of these crops and reduces imports in particular of maize and cassava but not of soybeans. Rice imports also fall strongly, while household welfare is positively affected but only by a small margin. The authors also assess the impact of removing rice tariffs in each scenario, but admit that this would be politically risky and thus unlikely. The main limitation of this study is that it is not able to capture the wider impacts of wage and labour changes as would be the case with a CGE model. Therefore, information on welfare changes based on household income and expenditure should only be treated as data specific to the model. Overall, this assessment is an important contribution to the literature as it helps to shape the policy debate on agricultural reform alternatives.

Publication Date:

2007

Author:

Sayaka B., Sumaryanto, Siregar M., Croppenstedt A. and DiGiuseppe S.

Publisher:

Agricultural Development Economics Division, FAO

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Optimum level and welfare effects of export taxes for cocoa beans in Indonesia: a partial equilibrium approach

sudo — Mon, 09 Feb 2015 08:35:23 +0000

PermaniEtAl(2011)OptimumLevelWelfareEffectsExportTaxesCocoaBeansIndo.pdf

In 2010, the Indonesian government introduced a 15 per cent export tax on cocoa beans to promote investments in downstream value-added activities. This paper examines the impact of this tax on domestic welfare and whether the government has imposed optimal taxes on cocoa beans. The research uses a partial equilibrium approach to analyse effects of policy by upstream sectors on downstream cocoa manufacturing. It also presents econometric estimates of import demand and export supply elasticity. The findings demonstrate some positive effects of export taxes, including diversion of some cocoa crop to domestic use. However, this results in significant losses to cocoa bean producers and does little to encourage the development of a downstream processing industry, the stated objective of the policy. The findings also show evidence of interdependence between the policies of major cocoa exporting countries. The authors acknowledge that due to limited available data, better econometric techniques do not necessarily lead to improved robustness of estimates of elasticity. This could significantly affect estimates of optimal export taxes and, therefore, analysis of welfare effects.

Publication Date:

2011

Author:

Permani R., Vanzetti D. and Setyoko N.R

Publisher:

Paper presented at the 2011 AARES Annual Conference 8-11 February 2011, Melbourne, Australia.

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Assessing the impact of oil prices and interest rate policies: the case of Indonesian cocoa

sudo — Mon, 09 Feb 2015 08:35:23 +0000

Arsyad-Yusuf(2008)AssessingImpactOilPricesInterestRatePolicieIndoCocoa.pdf

Cocoa plays two major roles in the Indonesian economy, providing important export earnings and a source of employment for millions of rural smallholders. This research uses an Econometric Model to analyse the factors responsible for the Indonesian cocoa demand and to assess the impact of oil prices and interest rate policies on cocoa exports and production. It uses data from 1983 to 2002 and divides the cocoa production regions into four provinces: South Sulawesi, West Sulawesi, Central Sulawesi and East Java. The findings reveals that Indonesian cocoa demand is influenced by the country's cocoa price, wages in the industrial sector, per capita income, oil prices and lag cocoa demand. The research shows that increasing oil prices in Indonesia have had a negative impact on cocoa exports and production. However, it also indicates that government policies leading to a decline in interest rates could be expected to increase export and production. While this may not be economically feasible for the country as a whole, the authors suggest that providing cocoa smallholders with subsidies on oil prices and interest rates offers the best solution to increasing Indonesian cocoa exports and production.

Publication Date:

2008

Author:

Arsyad M. and Yusuf S.

Journal:

Rykoku Journal of Economic Studies 48(1)

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The impact of fertilizer subsidy and export tax policies on Indonesia cocoa exports and production

sudo — Mon, 09 Feb 2015 08:35:23 +0000

Arsyad(2007)ImpactFertilizerSubsidyExportTaxPoliciesIndoCocoaExports Production.pdf

This paper examines factors that influence Indonesian cocoa exports and uses an econometric model to assess potential policy impacts. Results identified export price, cocoa production growth, exchange rate and time trend as significant influences on cocoa exports (R2 = 0.9473). The author concluded that a fertiliser price subsidy could be expected to increase Indonesia cocoa exports and production for cocoa smallholders. Simulating a 15 per cent fertiliser price subsidy resulted in increased cocoa production (0.38-8.3 per cent) in three out of the four regions included in the study and increased national production (1.93 per cent) and exports (1 per cent). Simulating an export tax of 5 per cent identified possible price transmission impacts on the domestic cocoa price that resulted in a reduction in Indonesian cocoa production and a decline in cocoa exports. The author recommends a devaluation policy as an alternative to an export tax policy to avoid any negative impacts on cocoa production, cocoa exports and smallholder welfare. These findings support previous assessments of similar policies on corn, cocoa and palm oil.

Publication Date:

2007

Author:

Arsyad, M.

Journal:

Ryukoku Journal of Economic Studies 47(3): 1-21

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